“How many tournaments do you think you could have won this year if you had putted like this week?”
The question was asked to Scottie Scheffler last Sunday, minutes after being proclaimed winner of the Hero World Challenge, during the champion’s press conference.
“I have no idea,” replied the Texan. And he added with a smile: “The only thing I knew is that you were going to ask me this question.”
We are not certain whether Scheffler has ever sat down to do the hard numbers of what could have been and was not due to his irregular and even deficient performance with the putter in his hands, compared to the rest of the competitors. But he does have a rough idea, there is no doubt about that…
Just in case, we have started to delve into some figures. It is bold to assert with certainty that such and such a player would have won a tournament if, for example, they had putted a little better. However, there are some statistics that provide more than reasonable clues.
How many tournaments could Scottie Scheffler have won in the 2022-23 season, in addition to the two he won, if he had putted moderately better? This is the big question. What we have done is focus on the Strokes Gained:Putting statistic, or in other words, the strokes gained or lost on the greens in relation to the average of the competitors in a specific tournament. From here, we launch a battery of real, hard and fast records, and we even dare to draw some conclusions. Let each one draw their own, on the other hand. Including Scottie.
– In twelve of the 22 tournaments evaluated, Scheffler went to a negative value in SG:Putting. In addition, in the Masters, a tournament in which this statistic is not provided, he finished as the worst player of those who made the cut in the average putts on greens in regulation statistic (1.76 putts per green in regulation).
– His best record in SG:Putting was in Phoenix, where he gained an advantage of 4.15 strokes compared to the average of the competitors, which helped him finish 13th in this statistic… And also to win the tournament. Therefore, according to this statistic, he never finished among the top ten putters (let’s also note that in the Sentry, with an SG:Putting of 2.15, he finished in 12th place in this statistic).
– In the THE PLAYERS, his other victory of the season, he didn’t even need to go that far: he was content with finishing 48th in SG:Putting, with a positive balance of only 0.1 strokes gained on the average. That’s how sublime his tee to green game would be… (Indeed, he was 5th in the SG:Off the tee, statistic, 4th in the SG:Approach to green statistic and 4th in the SG:Around the green statistic, also being the player who hit more greens in regulation).
– In the Arnold Palmer he finished in fourth position, only two strokes behind the winner, Kurt Kitayama. In that tournament, Scheffler’s SG:Putting was a grey 54th position, with a -0.9, i.e., he lost a stroke compared to the average, while the winner’s was 5.6… As you can see, a difference of more than six strokes. Although Kitayama, indeed was one of the three best putters that week, Scottie probably would have been enough to finish 35th in SG:Putting to win the tournament.
– In the PGA and the US Open, two of the four Majors, the Texan finished in second and third position, respectively, two and three strokes behind Brooks Koepka and Wyndham Clark, the respective winners. In both tournaments Scheffler putted more than decently, with a SG:Putting favourable, but somewhat far from the best: he didn’t even finish among the top thirty in both cases, while Koepka was 13th in the statistic and Clark 4th. He wouldn’t even have had to reach the level of these two players on the greens to have given himself a good chance of victory in both cases.
– In the Charles Schwab Challenge he finished third, just one stroke off the playoff played by Grillo and Schenk. His SG:Putting, with a value of -4.56, went to 71st place, the penultimate of the 72 players who made the cut. Crazy. Even a 60th place in this statistic could have been enough for him to win the tournament with some comfort.
– In the Memorial, more of the same, if not even more tragic. He finished third, just one stroke off the playoff played by Hovland and McCarthy, but the SG:Putting of Scheffler was the worst of the 65 players who made the cut (-8.51), more than fourteen strokes behind Hovland (6.06) and more than nineteen behind McCarthy (11.27) in this statistic. This was the only occasion in which Scottie publicly and directly said that just by putting a little better he would have taken the tournament by storm. And he was absolutely right, as you can see.
– Already in the Fedex play offs, in the BMW, with fifty players in contention, Scheffler finished the tournament in second position, only two strokes behind the winner, Hovland, but his SG:Putting went to 38th place (of fifty players, mind you) with a value of -1.89, eight strokes behind the Norwegian in the statistic (6.13).
– In the Tour Championship, the play offs final, his SG:Putting was the worst of the thirty players, although it seems that on this occasion, even if he had putted moderately well, he would not have surpassed the winner, again Hovland.
– In other tournaments such as the Byron Nelson, where he finished fifth three strokes behind the winner; the Travelers, where he finished fourth four strokes behind the winner; or even the Scottish Open, where he was third, five strokes behind the winner, he didn’t even finish among the top forty putters according to the SG:Putting…
– In the Open, at Royal Liverpool, he also suffered a lot: his SG:Putting went to -4.62, so far from the value in this statistic reached by the winner, Brian Harman, who went to a galactic 11.57, being by far the best putter of the week (the difference between them in this statistic went beyond 16 strokes, although it is also true that Harman took him 13 strokes in the classification).
– As a conclusion and trying to be cautious, it could be said that Scheffler could have won three more tournaments in 2023 for sure (Charles Schwab, Memorial and BMW) if he had putted just a little better, without even getting among the best putters of the week, just by not being among the worst. Pushing the envelope, it could also be said that he could have added another Major if he had made it into the top 20 of SG:Putting in the weeks of the PGA and the US Open. Almost nothing.
Despite everything, he is the undisputed World Number One without even having been one of the top ten putters in any of the tournaments he has played in this last season, and having only made it into the top twenty on two occasions… A case worthy of study. And a blessed madness his consistency from tee to green.
