Who will win the US Open and with what score? It’s the million-dollar question everyone wants to know at Oakmont. Those who play, those who bet, and those who are eager for a chat at the bar. Obviously, no one has a crystal ball; it should be seen as a game. In any case, the question holds even more intrigue being at the devilish coliseum of Henry Fownes. Here, the final score doesn’t matter as much as whether it will be over or under par. Both Jon Rahm and Josele Ballester, the two Spaniards playing this week, are clear about it. Winning under par is going to be difficult.
“Honestly, I don’t see it,” says Josele, who visited Oakmont for the first time last October. “Nothing like it, much easier then, well, or rather much less difficult,” he quickly adds. The big difference, observes the US Amateur champion, is in the rough, which is much longer this week. “Actually, if I had to make a prediction, I’d say the winning score will be whatever Scottie Scheffler achieves, as far as he goes,” he says with absolute conviction just after finishing his practice on the 2nd green and after betting 20 dollars with Javier Erviti on a pin position. The Basque, Josele’s caddie, says they’ll place it, while Josele can’t get his head around it. If it happens, we’ll reveal that day what the pin position was.
Jon follows the same line, although he introduces an important nuance. “If it doesn’t rain all week, I think it will be very difficult for anyone to finish under par. The course is going to get very, very hard. The explanation is very simple; if in 2016 they finished four under par and it rained a lot, it’s not hard to imagine what will happen if it doesn’t rain,” points out the Basque. Initially, the official USGA forecast says it won’t rain until the weekend, so be very mindful of the course conditions for Thursday and Friday. This morning, Tuesday, it was quite wet, but we know what the USGA is capable of between Wednesday and Thursday.
Necessarily, one of those heroes who could finish under par for the week is Jon Rahm. He’s in many predictions as a big favourite, something that wasn’t the case before this year’s PGA or Masters. The dynamic has changed. His performance at Quail Hollow has convinced the most sceptical. Jon doesn’t take it as a revenge. “It’s logical that I wasn’t among the favourites. My role in the last Majors hadn’t been very good, and many people still underestimate, I think unfairly, LIV Golf,” he explains.
In this regard, Rahm introduces an interesting nuance when explaining the depth and difficulty of LIV Golf. “Honestly, every time I’m reminded that I’ve had 21 consecutive top 10s in LIV, it’s something I really like, but I don’t give it that much value. It’s easier to finish in the top 10 in LIV than in a tournament with 150 players. It’s a matter of size. To be precise, I think winning is just as difficult in LIV or the PGA Tour, but finishing in the top 10 is easier in LIV because there are fewer players. If I had continued playing on the PGA Tour, it wouldn’t have been 21 consecutive top 10s, but I do think they could have all been top 30. I’ve been playing very well,” he notes.
Jon is convinced that to start winning at Oakmont, you have to be very good with the driver. “You have to hit a lot of fairways and go very long. It’s the club where everything starts. Then, of course, you have to hit good irons, have a good short game, and be good on the greens, but if you don’t hit fairways, you have nothing to do. It’s hitting fairways and going long, to have short clubs to the green. That’s where it all starts,” he states.
