In thirteen of the last fourteen editions of the PGA Championship, the champion was within the top ten of the tournament after the first 36 holes. Only Collin Morikawa deviated from this pattern in 2020 (he was in 25th place after the first two rounds). It’s just a statistical fact, but we must acknowledge that when something happens so often, there must be a reason.
Will it happen again this year at Quail Hollow? If we look at the current top ten of the tournament right after these mentioned 36 holes, we find a most peculiar, almost strange group, where it’s hard to recognise a clear candidate other than Scottie Scheffler (-5), who has today fully entered the fray and the tournament’s top ten with a surgical round of 69 strokes. The simplest and most natural conclusion at this point would be that all roads lead to Scottie, the World Number One.
Just in case, let’s review the rest of the players making up the top ten after 36 holes, starting with the leader Jhonattan Vegas (-8), who is seeking his first major performance in a Major this week.
We also have Matthieu Pavon (-6), Matt Fitzpatrick (-6), and Si Woo Kim (-6) as immediate pursuers. Any of the three have shown ample capabilities to provide an adequate response in any scenario, especially the Englishman, who has already won a Major (US Open 2022), but who in the last twelve months has dropped up to seventy places in the world ranking (from Number 15 to 85).
In any case, none of them were, by any stretch, on the list of the top ten, twenty, or even thirty favourites to win. Nor was Max Homa (-5), who is precisely confirming his rehabilitation to the highest level this week. And what about the rest, each with their peculiarities and undeniable merits behind them: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-4), Ryan Fox (-4), Alex Smalley (-4), J. T. Poston (-4), Robert MacIntyre (-4), Sam Stevens (-4), Denny McCarthy (-4), Ryan Gerard (-4), Garrick Higo (-4), and the newcomer Michael Thorbjornsen (-4).
Apart from the aforementioned Fitzpatrick, among all of them, they have amassed a grand total of no Majors. Agreed: even the most decorated players had their first time, and besides, this is golf, the most unpredictable sport in the universe. So, indeed, perhaps not all roads lead to Scheffler.
It might even break the pattern, as in 2020 with Morikawa. Why not think it could be so, precisely in a Major, this PGA, which is turning out so strange? In this case, some other much more significant names would come into the equation, such as Bryson DeChambeau (-3), Jon Rahm (-2), Viktor Hovland (-2), Tommy Fleetwood (-2), or even Joaquín Niemann (-1) and Tyrrell Hatton (-1).
As for Rory, it seems excessive to include him in the real fight for the title, starting this Saturday nine strokes behind the leader and six behind Scheffler, although only he could achieve such a feat. Only him? In 2025, given what we’ve seen and with the Career Grand Slam in play, only him.
