It’s not exactly cause for celebration or a reason to throw a party tonight, but the treatment of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship towards the Armada has been so dismissive over the years that having a Spaniard four shots off the lead with 36 holes to go, and Jon Rahm and Adrián Otaegui in the rear, at least gives some hope.
The Spaniard currently leading the charge is Jorge Campillo (-10). The golfer from Cáceres has delivered a very good card of 67 strokes at the Old Course in St Andrews. It wasn’t the best result of the day at the cradle of golf, but it did match his lowest ever card at the legendary home of the Royal & Ancient (he also shot 67 in the fourth round of this same tournament in 2021). Jorge’s relationship with the Old Course is not exactly smooth sailing. He struggles to feel comfortable on this course. In fact, this was his 13th round, superstition aside, more than half had been over par and only four times had he gone under 70. You could say it’s not his favourite, beyond, of course, the history it holds.
However, today he managed to get the thorn out, especially supported by a great finish. He did it all in the last five holes, with a spectacular four-under stretch. He started with a sensational eagle on the 14th, holing out from about 70 metres from the hole, followed with a great birdie on the 16th, saved an extraordinary par on the always tough 17th (Road Hole), and finished with another great birdie on the 18th. A final burst that placed him in 13th position, superstition aside, four shots behind the leaders Cameron John (-14) and Nicolas Colsaerts (-14).
Campillo is within reach, although he still has to complete the rotation with Carnoustie, always the most difficult course of the three in this Dunhill Links. The good thing is that the vast majority of those at the top will also play that course tomorrow and the weather doesn’t seem too bad. In fact, good scores are being made there this week. Rahm and Hatton signed 65 on Thursday and today Colsaerts did the same. Of the twelve players in the top 10, the only ones not playing Carnoustie this Saturday are Colsaerts (-14), Hillier (-12), Ashfield (-11), and Vaillant (-11), who will play at Kingsbarns, as well as Fleetwood (-11) and Hatton (-11), who will play at the Old Course. Needless to say, the English have become the big favourites for the win.
Backing up Jorge are Jon Rahm (-8) and Adrián Otaegui (-8), two distant bets, but not to be ruled out, especially as they play at the Old Course and Kingsbarns, respectively, two courses yielding the best results, although today conditions were a bit more challenging due to some wind, nothing crazy. The best round of the day was by Brooks Koepka (-9), 64 strokes, at Kingsbarns, followed by several 65s signed by Fleetwood and Rasmus Hojgaard at Kingsbarns, Colsaerts and Uihlein at Carnoustie, and Luiten and Mansell at the Old Course.
Rahm was very inconsistent today. He alternated really good shots, like on the 15th or 17th, with other major errors like the 16th hole, where he kept making mistakes from the second shot, or the three-putt on the 18th, focusing on the end of his round. Even so, it’s Rahm, and you can always expect the best from him. He will need to master the Old Course over the weekend, although history says it’s not his best. He has played five competitive rounds there, and his scores have been 73, 67, 71, 70, and 73. It’s time to get the thorn out if he wants to give himself a chance on Sunday.
Both Rahm and Otaegui are looking upwards because it’s their duty, but even they can’t be completely relaxed about the cut, as it’s not far off. Right now, it’s provisionally set at -6, and it’s likely to end at a minimum of -7 and probably -8. It’s not even out of the question that it could go to -9, as the progression has been three under each day, but most of those at the top are playing Carnoustie this Saturday, and it’s likely to adjust downwards.
In any case, the expected weather is good, with more wind forecast for Sunday, and few will need to be made to play the last day. In this sense, the rest of the Spaniards are on the edge: Arnaus (-6), Puig (-6), Hidalgo (-3), Cabrera Bello (-2), Cantero (-2), and Larrazábal (+3) play Kingsbarns tomorrow; Nacho Elvira (-2) and Eugenio Chacarra (PAR) will do so at the Old Course, and Santi Tarrio (-2), Manu Elvira (+3), and Sebas García (+6) will face Carnoustie.
Also in the cut’s mire are Rory McIlroy (-6), Shane Lowry (-6), Billy Horschel (-6), Robert MacIntyre (-5), Matthieu Pavon (-5), or Mattthew Fitpatrick (-5). Of the 14 LIV Golf players present in Scotland, the best is Hatton (-11), followed by Peter Uihlein (-10), Koepka, and Grace, both with -9.
