One of the exemptions for the Open Championship, among the last to be finalised, is for the top five in this year’s Race to Dubai after the BMW International Open, a tournament taking place this week in Munich. In other words, this Sunday afternoon, when the tournament concludes, we will know the names of those five players who will be at Royal Portrush. The only requirement is to be among the top 20 in the Race to Dubai, a requirement that the five will undoubtedly meet.
The five currently qualified under this criterion are John Parry, Haotong Li, Kristoffer Reitan, Daniel Hillier, and Shaun Norris. The first three are practically mathematically qualified, Hillier is in a strong position, and the South African Norris will have to endure a bit more pressure. There are 22 players behind them who have a chance to break into those top five spots that would go to the British. The possibility exists, although it is certainly remote. They need to play very well and for Norris and Hillier to practically miss the cut. Of course, the five currently qualified are participating in the tournament in Germany.
Regardless, while there’s life, there’s hope, and here we will tell you who those players are who arrive at the BMW International Open with that added motivation. Of the 22 golfers, there are five Spaniards.
– There are 12 who only have a chance if they win to have a minimal mathematical chance, depending, of course, on what Norris does: Robinson Thompson, Schneider, Ferguson, Armitage, Luiten, Del Rey, Campillo, Wu, Ayora, Cantero, Lagergren, and Bairstow.
– There are 3 who only have a chance if they are second alone: Mansell, Syme, and Veerman.
– There is 1 who should at least be second tied with one other player: Calum Hill.
– There are 2 who must be at least third alone: Schaper and Kruyswijk.
– There are 3 who need to finish the BMW International Open at least in third position tied with one player: Von Dellingshausen, Neergaard Petersen, and Chacarra.
– There is 1 who would need to be at least fourth alone: Nakajima.
The Japanese player has the best chance, yet he would still need to be fourth alone and for Norris to score practically nothing. As you can see, the chances are remote, but they exist. It’s unlikely, but none of those 22 players will lose hope before playing the tournament. Their most realistic chances would almost always involve a victory. Then, calculations would need to begin, although the exact mathematics are those we have outlined earlier.
Finally, this situation could change slightly with the qualifier taking place today in the United Kingdom. Of the 22 players who have a chance to break into those top five in the Race who are not yet qualified, five are playing the qualifier. If they pass, obviously, they would no longer count. They are Bairstow, Ayora, Robinson Thompson, Veerman, and Neergaard Petersen. It’s noteworthy that there are very few, despite the chances of qualifying via the other route being very slim.
