– Anything other than focusing directly on Rory McIlroy would be sheer folly. He is the firm favourite to win this week at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and to say otherwise is to be ignorant and simply fascinated by contradicting the most stubborn reality. We might reach Sunday and the Northern Irishman hasn’t won, well yes, it’s more than possible, such is this sport and competition, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that as the show is about to start, he is the one who grabs all the attention.
– His numbers are a wrecking ball. He has played 15 times on the Majlis course at the Emirates Golf Club and his record is as follows: four wins, six top 3s, eight top 5s, and 12 top 10s. That is, he wins one in every four times he plays and finishes in the top ten three out of five. Curiously, the only three times he didn’t finish in the top ten were his first three visits. Rory is seeking his fifth conquest of the Dallah Trophy, the name given to the giant teapot awarded to the champion.
– McIlroy’s golf fits like a glove to the Dubai course. His distance from the tee allows him to cut corners with the ease of a gazelle. This gives him a significant advantage over those with less power. Moreover, of the six holes where the most scoring can be done on this course (2, 3, 10, 13, 17, and 18), five, all except 17, favour players who hit a draw, which is Rory’s natural shot shape.
– Another factor in his favour: the greens are usually firm, although this year there’s debate on this matter. This means the higher you hit the ball and with more spin, the better. Picture Rory’s silhouette next to this statement.
– The numbers don’t lie. Rory has played 56 rounds on this course and his average score is 68.88. Of course, no one has a better average with more rounds played. Only seven players have averaged below 69 strokes in the 34 editions held at the Emirates. Besides Rory, there’s Ben An, with the lowest average of 68.31 over 16 rounds, Retief Goosen with 68.38, Bryson DeChambeau with 68.58, Patrick Reed with 68.83, Lasse Jensen with 68.88, and Brian Davis with 68.94. Only Rory and Reed are here this week. Barring a major surprise, both will be in the fight to win on Sunday. Tiger Woods finished his average score here at 69. The best Spaniard is Sergio García with 69.82. Of those present, Rafa Cabrera Bello leads with 70.54.
– McIlroy doesn’t even need to be the longest hitter of all. It’s a combination. He has great distance, but he’s also excellent with his approach shots. Two years ago, for example, Cameron Young set a new distance record (average of 324.5 yards) and was in contention to win, but he succumbed to McIlroy. The thing is, Rory, while hitting very long, is also among those who hit the most greens in regulation, above 73 percent.
– Rory will share the marquee group on Thursday and Friday with the other two big favourites: Fleetwood and Hatton. They haven’t held back in Dubai. We’ll see if the conversation arises during the round about whether Jon and Tyrrell should pay the fines.
– So, the coordinates to follow this week to find the winner’s profile: a very long hitter, who hits the ball high, preferably with a draw, with plenty of spin, and has a reasonably good week on the greens. If you search Google for this description, all the photos that come up are of Rory.
