The impressive round of 62 strokes carved out this Sunday by Rory McIlroy in Abu Dhabi has had more significance than it might initially seem. It’s true that it wasn’t enough to win the tournament, though just barely, but it brought him much closer to his seventh victory in the Race to Dubai.
See the difference. If Rory, instead of finishing tied for third as he did, had ended in the position he held after the third round, tied for twelfth, they would have arrived at the Dubai Final being played this week with mathematical chances of winning the ranking up to the eleventh place: Laurie Canter. In contrast, with his final surge, he has reduced the field to three candidates and there are only five scenarios that could prevent his victory. A 62 with a lot of weight.
As you know, this Thursday marks the start of the DP World Tour Championship, the grand Final of the European Tour. Only Rory McIlroy, Marco Penge, and Tyrrell Hatton have mathematical chances of winning the Race to Dubai, and there are only five combinations for McIlroy not to win. Here they are:
1.- For Tyrrell Hatton to WIN the DP World Tour Championship and McIlroy to finish tied for 8th with two or worse.
2.- For Marco Penge to finish tied for 2nd with two and Rory to finish worse than 24th alone.
3.- For Marco Penge to finish tied for 2nd with one and McIlroy to finish tied for 8th with one or worse.
4.- For Marco Penge to finish 2nd alone and Rory to be tied for 4th with one or worse.
5.- For Marco Penge to WIN the DP World Tour Championship and McIlroy to finish tied for 2nd with one or worse.
In the first scenario, for Hatton to win, Penge would need to finish tied for 2nd with one or worse, meaning only a solo second for Penge would prevent Hatton’s victory.
Meanwhile, in scenarios 3, 4, and 5, for Penge to win the Race to Dubai, Hatton must not win the tournament.
As it stands, the round of 62 strokes has brought McIlroy much closer to that seventh Race to Dubai. He would become the second in history with the most titles, just ahead of Seve Ballesteros, with whom he is currently tied at six, and one behind Colin Montgomerie, the absolute leader with eight crowns in the European Tour’s order of merit.
Last year, McIlroy had an even easier scenario. He arrived at the Dubai Final with only one player having a mathematical chance to surpass him. It was Thriston Lawrence, and he only needed to win and for Rory to be tied for eleventh with one or worse. Ultimately, the South African had a poor DP World Tour Championship and, as if that wasn’t enough, McIlroy ended up winning the tournament for the third time. Similarly, if he wins the Dubai Final this week, Rory would become the first to achieve four victories in Jumeirah. It would be the icing on the cake to an unbeatable 2025.
