You have to see the calm with which Collin Morikawa (-10) has taken the year 2025 so far, as he had only played three tournaments to date. This Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth. And it could be the one after signing a 67 in the third round and placing himself as the sole leader. In the last six months, since last August, he had only played four tournaments before arriving at Bay Hill, in addition to the Presidents Cup in September (Zozo, Sentry, Pebble Beach, and Genesis). Everything, absolutely everything, it seems, has been focused on the Majors this season and, judging by what has been seen in the first three rounds of this Arnold Palmer, he must be considered.
Let’s say that after winning a Major in each of his first two full seasons as a professional (years 2020 and 2021), he is tired of waiting and needs to feel like a factor again in the great equation of world golf. Watching him play at Bay Hill this Saturday, it’s certainly surprising that this man hasn’t won a single tournament since the end of 2023… He has all the consistency, because despite having won little or nothing in the last fifteen months, he remains the Number 5 in the world.
It particularly stings the Californian that there are doubts about his ability to finish the job, but these kinds of feelings don’t create themselves or happen by chance. They respond to specific facts. That Sentry he let slip away against Rahm; that Masters (2024) going out in the leading group that also didn’t end well with a Sunday 74… Morikawa is not a timid or charisma-less leader, let it be clear. It’s just that players of this type are held to a much higher standard than the average.
The Sunday test at Bay Hill can be very reliable for Morikawa and anyone, because in Mr. Palmer’s course preparation there is more than just reflections of a major. This Saturday, the wind didn’t blow too much either, but the slip-ups were once again the order of the day. The most notable ones are from the two players in the leading group: Shane Lowry (-4) signed a 76 and Wyndham Clark (-2) a 77. It’s a great tournament, because there’s also room for outstanding scores. There’s Morikawa’s 67 or Russell Henley‘s (-9), who has earned the status of a great contender this week and month by month, over the past year, remains a strong contender for the world top ten, a level certainly unthinkable in other times.
Rory McIlroy (-3) and Scottie Scheffler (-2) have also fallen out of the main favourites after delivering scores of 73 and 71 strokes, because Bay Hill doesn’t look at the stripes, it only rewards finesse in play. Or the consistency from tee to green, precisely what these two players lacked today. It is striking, once again, the serious problems Scheffler is encountering in truly getting his golf rounds going.
Tomorrow, Sunday, a tough day of golf is expected. At least, very lively. Mainly because more wind is expected than on Friday and Saturday, something more akin to what was experienced on Thursday, with gusts over thirty kilometres per hour, quite a challenge on those firm and fast greens. Additionally, the forecast details that the intensity will increase as the hours pass, reaching its highest peaks from one o’clock in the afternoon, practically when the leading group is going out to play. There could be, therefore, a lot of ups and downs on the leaderboard. The best tournament, by far, so far this year, deserves a thrilling finish.
