– The BMW Championship, the second playoff of the FedEx Cup starting this Thursday, will mark the end of the qualification for the United States Ryder Cup team regarding those top six who earn the right to play without waiting for the captain’s picks. Then, a week later, captain Keegan Bradley will announce his six picks after the Tour Championship. Let’s map out the current situation, because of those six fixed spots, there are still two up for grabs this week at the Caves Valley Golf Club, about twenty kilometres northeast of Baltimore, the venue for the BMW.
– First things first: there are four players who have already secured their spot in the Ryder at Behtpage, namely Scottie Scheffler, J. J. Spaun, Xander Schauffele, and Russell Henley, who is in fourth place on the list and is mathematically impossible to be overtaken by three players.
– From here, the chaos begins. Fifth in the ranking right now is Bryson Dechambeau, who can indeed lose his place among the top six with the calculator in hand (although it seems that, in that case, one of the captain’s six picks would be his no matter what), among other things because he cannot earn more points, although it’s also not easy for two players to overtake him.
– Harris English currently closes the list of the top six, but he is still threatened by multiple and varied combinations that could leave him out. We must keep these ideas very clear:
– Justin Thomas, 7th in the Ryder ranking, starts this Thursday just 93 points behind English, and his chances of getting into the top six are broad and varied (the tournament awards a huge amount of points: 3,600 to the winner, 2,160 to the second, 1,360 to the third, 560 to the tenth, 382 to the fifteenth, or 282 to the twentieth, for example).
– Collin Morikawa (8th) also has some leeway, as even a ninth place in the BMW could be enough for him to get in, if the right scenarios occur.
– Ben Griffin (9th) has a tougher challenge, as he needs to finish at least third on his own to have a chance of getting into the top six.
– From this point, everything simplifies, because we have four players, those ranked 10th to 13th in the Ryder ranking, who only need to win to get into the top six. They are Keegan Bradley (10th), Maverick McNealy (11th), Andrew Novak (12th), and Brian Harman (13th). Winning, indeed, would set them on the right path, practically done, although not absolutely guaranteed mathematically (it would depend on how English, Thomas, and Morikawa finish).
– Therefore, players like Cameron Young (14th), Patrick Cantlay (15th), or Sam Burns (16th) would not secure a fixed spot even by winning the BMW this week, although it seems obvious, especially in these three cases, that a great performance, let alone a victory, would give them many chances to be among the captain’s picks.
– Because that’s another thing: if you can’t get into the top six, at least win the tournament, get into the top twelve that way or stay very close, ensure your presence in the Tour Championship if you haven’t already, and make it difficult for the captain. With that mission or goal, players like Lucas Glover, Daniel Berger, Akshay Bhatia, Chris Gotterup, Tony Finau, and a few others could start, although their chances hinge on a true final epic.
– Needless to say, one of the points of greatest interest and attention is focused on the captain, Keegan Bradley. Some of his colleagues like Patrick Cantlay or Rickie Fowler have said this very week that they certainly believe Bradley is one of the twelve best American players today and that, therefore, he shouldn’t hesitate to include himself among his six picks. For him, as has been written, only winning is enough to get into the top six and close the debate. The other, choosing himself, will likely depend on how he sees his game in the two remaining tournaments, because he has already secured his presence among the top thirty of the FedEx Cup and therefore in next week’s Tour Championship.
