Jorge Campillo is playing this week at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, a PGA Tour tournament held at the The Champion course of the PGA National, a legendary course designed by Jack Nicklaus. This will be the second tournament of the season for the Extremadura golfer on the American circuit after the Mexico Open in Vallarta, where he secured a valuable top 20 finish.
Beyond his own performance at the Cognizant, Campillo is also vying this week to qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a Signature Event of the PGA Tour taking place next week at Bay Hill. These are the elite tournaments on the calendar across the Atlantic. They distribute 20 million dollars, more than double the Cognizant and five times more than the Puerto Rico Open, a tournament also taking place next week where Campillo would play if he does not qualify for the Arnold Palmer.
The truth is that after his top 20 in Mexico, the Norba golfer has his chances, they are not so far-fetched, although they are very demanding, as could not be otherwise at this level. The calculations are quite simple and we are going to detail them.
Campillo has three options to qualify for the Arnold Palmer:
1.- Winning the Cognizant Classic. In this way there would be no more calculations to make. Not only would he qualify for next week at Bay Hill, but he would also enter the rest of the season’s Signatures, as well as the THE PLAYERS Championship. Obviously, this would be a great achievement, as it would also guarantee him a card for two years and qualify him for the Masters of Augusta, among many other things.
2.- Through the Aon Next 10 ranking. This means being among the top 10 in the FedEx Cup at the conclusion of the Cognizant, who are not already qualified for the Signature Events. To get among these top 10, he only needs to win, so, either way, the situation is the same.
3.- Through the Aon Swing 5 ranking. This is where he has more options. The five players who have scored the most FedEx Cup points between the Mexico Open and the Cognizant Classic of those who are not qualified for the Arnold Palmer qualify. At the moment, Campillo is in fifteenth place in this ranking thanks to the 43 points he scored in Vallarta with his tied nineteenth place.
The cut with the top five is currently marked by Robert MacIntyre with a total of 95 points. Therefore, at least, to have a remote mathematical chance of entering Bay Hill, Campillo would need to finish 16th alone this week. With that result, he would score 53 FedEx points and would be placed with 96. Beware that we say mathematical options, although the reality is that with that result he would have very few options, as it will be rare that he is not surpassed by any of those coming from behind or by MacIntyre himself. The Scotsman would be served by passing the cut. Therefore, being sixteenth in Palm Beach gives him the mathematical option, although it is remote.
In this way, playing it safe, we could say that Campillo really needs a top 5 in the Cognizant Classic to get into the Arnold Palmer through the Aon Swing 5. Being fifth alone would surpass MacIntyre, CT Pan, Stephan Jaeger and Justin Lower, so he would be second in the ranking depending on what the others do. However, he would have to be surpassed by four players, something that is not so simple.
Another important point. How many players present at the Cognizant Classic are already qualified for the Arnold Palmer and, therefore, do not pose a threat to Campillo? Well, in total there are 32 golfers, the 21 who are already in by finishing last year in the top 50 of the FedEx, the 10 who get in through the Aon Next 10 and Nick Dunlap as winner of the American Express (the rest of this year’s winners are qualified by the Aon 10 or by the Top 50 of last year).
The 21 already qualified by the FedEx 2023 are:
– Rory McIlroy
– Matthew Fitzpatrick
– Adam Schenk
– Sepp Straka
– Russell Henley
– Rickie Fowler
– Lucas Glover
– Tom Kim
– Sungjae Im
– Chris Kirk
– Corey Conners
– Denny McCarthy
– Justin Rose
– Adam Svensson
– JT Poston
– Lee Hodges
– Cameron Young
– Eric Cole
– Byeong Hun An
– Tom Hoge
– Brendon Todd
The top 10 of the FedEx that is not already exempt is the following:
– Matthieu Pavon
– Jake Knapp
– Ludvig Aberg
– Luke List
– Grayson Murray
– Christiaan Bezuidenhout
– Will Zalatoris
– Justin Thomas
– Mark Hubbard
– Thomas Detry
Of all of them, Pavon, Knapp, List, Bezuidenhout, Hubbard and Detry are in the Cognizant. Thomas, with his absence this week, is putting his participation in the Arnold Palmer at risk. He would have to be surpassed by three unclassified players for Bay Hill in the FedEx Cup.
