Has Scottie Scheffler said goodbye to his chances of victory in the US Open at the first hurdle? Answering this question affirmatively would be going too far, especially considering who he is, but the reality is that he has made it very, very difficult for himself.
The World Number One has started at Oakmont with a round of 73 strokes (+3) and is in 49th place, seven behind the leader J.J. Spaun (-4) and, perhaps more importantly, five behind Brooks Koepka, four behind Jon Rahm, three behind Jordan Spieth or Collin Morikawa, and even two behind Viktor Hovland. In other words, he has left a lot of ground with too many people. Is he ruled out? Absolutely not. Will he have to do something very special to win on Sunday? Without a doubt.
This is according to the recent history of the US Open. Only two winners of the last 26 were outside the top 20 after the first round. One was Brooks Koepka at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. The other was Webb Simpson at the Olympic Club. These are the exceptions. It happens, but very rarely. And there’s more: eleven of the last twelve champions of this Major scored under 70 strokes in the first round. The exception, again, was Koepka at the aforementioned Shinnecock venue. It happens, but on rare occasions.
Scheffler will have to fight against this stubborn reality of the US Open, but at the same time, he will have to battle against his own history. The Texan has never won on the PGA Tour starting the first day beyond 30th place. Today he is 49th. In other words, he needs to do something unprecedented in his career to win at Oakmont. He can do it, no doubt, but it would be something exceptional in any case.
What happened to Scottie today is that he was fundamentally cold. He lacked inspiration in distance control with the wedges. In this area, he even seemed a bit desperate at times. He started putting well but ended up losing his touch on the greens. He also didn’t have those magical moments needed to recover when he got into trouble. It was one of those rounds where everything that could go wrong ended up even worse. He made three birdies, which is not a disaster, but he committed six bogeys, an excess by his standards. The version of Scheffler rowing from behind is not precisely the most reliable. We’ll see if at Oakmont he can also defeat history.
In the same situation as Scheffler, or worse, there are other big names: Bryson DeChambeau (+3), Tyrrell Hatton (+3), Hideki Matsuyama (+4), Rory McIlroy (+4), Wyndham Clark (+4), Cameron Smith (+5), Dustin Johnson (+5), Joaco Niemann (+5), Patrick Cantlay (+6), Justin Thomas (+6), or Justin Rose (+7). The list of illustrious players overwhelmed by Oakmont is very serious. All of them will also have a challenge with history over the next three days to try to win this US Open.
By the way, the first round at Oakmont has concluded with a total of 10 players under par. In 2016, we had eleven, with the same result at the top. As for the cut, with the top 60 and ties, it has been provisionally set at +3, although everything points to it being +7 or +8 tomorrow.
