– The close of 2025 also, as is evident, marks the end of the first quarter of the 21st century and, therefore, the first hundred men’s golf Majors (2001-2025), out of the four hundred that should be contested in this twenty-first century. In reality, as is well known, the hundred were reduced to 99 due to the pusillanimous decision of the Royal & Ancient not to hold the Open in 2020. That decision during pandemic times was as absolutely legitimate as it was lacking in audacity, as demonstrated by the other three majors, which had the courage, determination, and flexibility needed to change the tournament date on the fly and hold it with full health guarantees.
– The big numbers in the majors of this first quarter of the 21st century leave us with a name that is still clearly above the rest: Tiger Woods. The genius from Cypress achieved ten victories during this time and, although there are still 75 years ahead to close the century, it is realistic to wonder if anyone will be able to surpass those ten wins in the remainder of the century. Let’s not forget that in the entire 20th century only two players achieved more than ten victories in the Majors, Jack Nicklaus (18) and Walter Hagen (11)…
– Of the 99 Majors contested in this first quarter of the century, only seven players account for 36 wins, more than a third of the total: Tiger Woods (10), Phil Mickelson (6), Brooks Koepka (5), Rory McIlroy (5), Scottie Scheffler (4), Jordan Spieth (3), and Padraig Harrington (3). The magnificent seven, for now. Another twelve players have managed to win two during this time, some of them, due to age and capabilities, with the counter still running: Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Ángel Cabrera, Bubba Watson, Zach Johnson, Martin Kaymer, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Collin Morikawa. These 19 players have won, therefore, nearly two-thirds (60/99) of the majors contested in this first quarter of the century.
– But let’s look at other numbers, much less exposed at first glance, but which contain some truths that, depending on how you look at them, are chilling. Let’s focus on the weight of the first two rounds, even more decisive than you, dear reader, surely already consider…
– Let’s not kid ourselves: the top 25 of the leaderboard marks an almost decisive line in the first 36 holes. Thus, in 87 of the 99 Majors of the first quarter of the century, the final winner was within the top 25 after the first round, a truly emphatic fact. And, pay attention, in 95 of the 99 the final winner was within the top 25 after the second round. Overwhelming. In other words: if at the end of the first 18 holes you are not within the top 25, your chances have been more than severely reduced. And if you haven’t made it into that top 25 cut by Friday, you can practically say goodbye. Only on four occasions in this first quarter of the century did the final winner come from beyond the top 25 on Friday. Namely:
– David Duval won the Open in 2001 and was 35th after the second round, seven strokes off the lead.
– Padraig Harrington won the PGA in 2008 and was 26th after the second round, six strokes off the lead.
– Webb Simpson won the US Open in 2012 and was 29th after the second round, six strokes off the lead.
– Francesco Molinari won the Open in 2018 and was 29th after the second round, six strokes off the leader.
– No one, therefore, has won a Major in this first quarter of the century coming from beyond 35th place and with more than seven strokes behind after the second round.
– Let’s remember that only on twelve occasions in these 99 Majors did a player win who was not already within the top 25 after the first round. And in this section, there is one name that stands out above the rest: Brooks Koepka. In three of his five Major victories, the Florida native started Thursday outside the top 25. He was 38th after the first round in the PGA of 2023; 33rd in the PGA of 2018, and 46th in the US Open of 2018. Precisely this 46th place sets the bar in this first quarter of the century: no one has won a Major of this type coming from beyond 46th place in the first round.
– As you can see, it is mandatory to be within the top 25 early in the Major weeks. But the statistics of this first quarter of the century are actually even more demanding: if you are not in the top ten of the tournament by Friday, your chances have also been greatly reduced. Thus, in 89 of the 99 Majors, almost nine out of ten majors (89.89 percent), the final winner came from the top ten on Friday. In fact, most winners also come from the top ten of the first round, as this situation has occurred in 69 of the 99 Majors contested.
– However, it doesn’t seem like a great business to lead a Major after the first round. In the 99 contested, only on 16 occasions was the final winner leading the tournament after the first round. The leader after the second round, logically, gains a lot of ground: in 44 of the 99 Majors, the final winner was also the leader or co-leader after 36 holes.
– One last piece of data, not to overwhelm too much, which also gives much to think about: in 55 of these 99 Majors of the first quarter of the century, the final winner was first or second on the leaderboard after the second round. Statistically, if you think about it, it’s staggering: if you are not first or second after 36 holes, your chances are already quite limited.
– It doesn’t matter. We will arrive at the Masters of 2026, at the PGA, the US Open, or the Open, and we will still grant all the chances in the world to a favourite who is 27th after the first round. Or to one who is 14th after the second, ignoring that the stubborn reality of the numbers dictates a chilling truth: at the end of the first round, in reality, nearly ninety percent of the participants are already out of the running for victory…
Fortunately, though, there is always a glimmer of hope to cling to, that of exceptional cases. Just ask Koepka. Or Keegan Bradley, who won the PGA in 2011 and was already leading the tournament on Friday after starting Thursday in 36th place, eight strokes off the lead.
