There are a thousand ways to analyse data, and not to mention feelings, in the search for favourites. For example, for this 125th edition of the US Open that begins today. Some are more thoughtful and objective; others are based more on statistics, according to the type of player and the profile of the course where it is played; some simply go with intuition, a hunch; you can also review the data that history provides and make comparisons; and there will be those who take a bit from here and there from all the previously mentioned methods and are able to reach a conclusion…
So, at the outset, it never hurts to check how the betting houses are doing. In this case, there is total unanimity: it will be rare to find a betting house that pays more than 4 dollars for the victory of Scottie Scheffler. The Texan is the undisputed favourite.
It couldn’t be any other way. Scheffler arrives at Oakmont with three victories in his last four appearances, one of them in a Major, the PGA Championship. Furthermore, he has already spent 143 weeks as World Number One, the last 108 consecutively (more than two years). And all his peers who have spoken on the matter, also without exception, place him as the leading candidate.
Let’s try to examine and twist some data that might confirm (or perhaps not) the well-founded suspicion we all have about the favouritism of this extraordinary player. But don’t take them too seriously: it’s not a rigorous laboratory method, but rather a more or less fun review of some historical twists and turns, with a particular way of drawing the relevant conclusions. Let’s get to it.
– Since the world ranking has existed (1986), only one player has won the US Open arriving at the event as World Number One, which is Scheffler’s current position. There’s no need to say who it was: Tiger Woods. Moreover, Tiger won three US Opens (2000, 2002, and 2008) and on all three occasions, he arrived at the event as World Number One. It can be said another way: Woods was never able to win the US Open when he arrived at the event outside of World Number One. If we admit that the closest thing to Woods today is Scottie Scheffler, then this fact should be noted as favourable to the Texan…
– Since the world ranking has existed, only six Numbers have repeated as US Open winners. And the most repeated is… The World Number 9!
– Indeed, the player who arrived at the US Open as World Number 9 has won it on four occasions: Corey Pavin (1995), Retief Goosen (2004), Brooks Koepka (2018), and Bryson DeChambeau (2020). Seen this way, Scheffler’s options are slightly reduced, and Hideki Matsuyama’s, who is the current World Number 9, grow like foam…
The player who arrived at the US Open as World Number 8, pay attention, won it on three occasions, the same number of times as World Number One (Tiger on all three occasions, as already mentioned). These were the cases of Payne Stewart (1991), Ernie Els (1998), and Rory McIlroy (2011). Anyway, let’s not forget that the current World Number 8 is Sepp Straka…
– The player who arrived at the US Open as World Number 5 won it on two occasions. These were the cases of Curtis Strange (1988) and Justin Rose (2013). Justin Thomas has arrived at Oakmont as World Number 5…
– For the geeks: on two occasions, players who arrived as World Number 22 (Tom Kite in 1992 and Brooks Koepka in 2017) and as World Number 25 (Raymond Floyd in 1986 and Gary Woodland in 2019) won the US Open. Currently, World Number 22 is Sam Burns and 25 is J. J. Spaun…
– It can be seen another way: there is only one top ten in the world that has never won the US Open. Indeed, since the world ranking has existed (1986), no player who arrived at the US Open as World Number 7 has managed to win. With the statistics in hand, maybe it’s time: right now, it’s Russell Henley, winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational this year and who just finished fifth in the Memorial…
– Having said all this, it must be remembered that Scottie Scheffler has won his three Majors arriving at the event as World Number One (Masters 2022 and 2024 and PGA 2025).
– Only five players in history have won the PGA and the US Open in the same year, which is what Scheffler is seeking this week at Oakmont. Gene Sarazen in 1922, Ben Hogan in 1948, Jack Nicklaus in 1980, Tiger Woods in 2000, and Brooks Koepka in 2018.
– However, only two won them consecutively, which would be Scheffler’s case this year. They were Sarazen and Hogan. And only one, Hogan, another Texan, won them in the order they are played now, with the PGA before the US Open. Moreover, when he did it in 1948, the PGA was held in May and the US Open in June, as it is currently. And if we want to go a bit further, let’s say that Hogan, in 1948, finished sixth in the Masters before playing the PGA and US Open, while Scheffler was fourth in Augusta this year…
– It doesn’t seem far-fetched to consider that statistically, this succession of triumphs, PGA and US Open, in the correct order, could finally happen again, 77 years after the great Ben Hogan did it… It’s one way of looking at it, almost as silly as the opposite.
– Finally, another record and let everyone draw their own conclusions, as we’re not going to do everything ourselves: only two players have won the Memorial and the US Open in the same year. They were Curtis Strange (1988) and Tiger Woods (2000). Scheffler will try to include himself in this privileged club. Once again following in the footsteps of the titan from Cypress wherever he can.
