This Thursday, the 153rd edition of the Open Championship kicked off at Royal Portrush, the last men’s major of the 2025 season. An event where the best players in the world, mainly from the PGA Tour, the DP World Tour, and LIV Golf, face off in pursuit of the famous Claret Jug of the British Open.
Anything can happen in an event where the challenges of the course, with the usual peculiarities of this tournament, and the weather always play a significant role. However, specialists and betting houses focus on several specific names as the main favourites for the title. Among them is the Spaniard Jon Rahm.
For example, according to Oddschecker, these would be the main candidates for victory on Sunday:
| Player | Odds | Probability* |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 6/1 | ≈ 14.3 % |
| Rory McIlroy | 17/2 | ≈ 11.8 % |
| Jon Rahm | 13/1 | ≈ 7.1 % |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 25/1 | ≈ 3.8 % |
| Xander Schauffele | 25/1 | ≈ 3.8 % |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 28/1 | ≈ 3.4 % |
Scottie Scheffler is the favourite with odds of 6/1, equivalent to 14.3 %. Rory McIlroy, at home, follows closely with 11.8 %. Meanwhile, Jon Rahm is around 13/1, that is, 7.1 %. Following them are Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, and Tyrrell Hatton.
ESPN also supports Scheffler (5–6/1) and McIlroy (approximately 7/1) as clear favourites, while placing Rahm at 12/1 and DeChambeau at 18/1. Meanwhile, TalkSPORT and The Sun agree that Scheffler is the favourite and cite Rahm at 12–13/1; McIlroy at 6/1 after a good duel in Scotland.
In summary, Scheffler and McIlroy account for nearly 26% of the ‘pie’ of implied probability. There is a lower tier formed by Rahm (7%) and then a group of contenders with 3–4% each (Fleetwood, Schauffele, Hatton). For example, Fleetwood bets on his experience at Royal Portrush (runner-up in 2019). And all this, without ruling out the so-called ‘outsiders’ or hidden values, where names like Brooks Koepka or Jordan Spieth would be.
