– In the last five editions, the accumulated result of the winner in the PGA (2019-2023) goes up to -41. And that is exactly the same accumulated result of the winner of the US Open in these same five years.
In the set of the last three editions, a total of 39 players managed to finish below par in the PGA… Exactly the same figure as in the US Open in the same period. If we go to the last five editions, the figures do not differ so much: a total of 87 players finished under par in the PGA in the sum of the five editions and 71 did so in the US Open.
In the last three editions of the PGA, you had to reach exactly the record of -1 in 72 holes to reach the top ten of the tournament; in the US Open you had to reach -1 in 2021, PAR in 2022 and -3 in 2023. Again very similar figures. The cut line, in fact, has been more bulky in recent times in the PGA: in 2019 the cut was passed with +4 (+2 in the US Open), in 2020 with +1 (+6 in the US Open), in 2021 with +5 (+4 in the US Open), in 2022 with +4 (+3 in the US Open) and in 2023 with +5 (+2 in the US Open).
The numbers indicate a very clear trend: the PGA of America and the USGA ‘have come closer together’. The PGA is today a tournament that has tightened the screws and the US Open, on the contrary, has slightly softened compared to past times. The records of both tournaments, in any case, indicate greater difficulty in playing conditions than in the Masters and the Open in general terms. And it gives the impression that this ‘approach’ between the PGA and the US Open makes the vast majority a little happier and gives a more powerful identity to the PGA, although for many it is still the Major with less personality. “The PGA is more like other tournaments we play during the year,” said Jordan Spieth yesterday. His name, Spieth’s, should have more echo this week, since he could close his Grand Slam in Valhalla, but right now nobody seems to trust too much in his chances… In any case, it will be better not to forget this guy, so absolutely unpredictable.
– To date, in the 105 editions of the PGA Championship already played, history has left us 72 different tournament champions. So we are going to have a good group of illustrious players looking to be number 73. For example, Scottie Scheffler. Or Jon Rahm, who with a victory would finally close the Spanish Grand Slam in the Majors. The list of aspirants to that Number 73, however, is long and juicy, as this week only 16 tournament winners participate.
This is not the case of Brooks Koepka, who will seek his fourth victory, which would take him to the second historical step tied with Tiger Woods and only one victory from the two legends, Walter Hagen and Jack Nicklaus, who dominate the winners list with five victories each. Nor is it the case of Rory McIlroy, who is looking for his third victory this week, just like Justin Thomas and Phil Mickelson, with which they would reach Gene Sarazen, Sam Snead… And Koepka, of course.
– Let’s continue with Scheffler. The history of the PGA in Valhalla throws up a curious fact. Tiger won on this course in 2000 arriving at the event as the undisputed Number One in the world (that 2000 was the year of his ten victories). And Rory did the same in 2014, as he had just conquered the throne after winning the British and the WGC Bridgestone Invitational consecutively. There is no need to remember what kind of Number One Scheffler is in these times…
But since golf is not pure mathematics, let’s also say that Mark Brooks won the PGA in Valhalla in 1996 and arrived at the event as Number 44 in the world… For the lovers of the cabal: this week it is Eric Cole who arrives as Number 44 in the world.
– Scheffler and Koepka start as main favourites and their victory would take the streak of American victories to nine in a row. The last non-American to win was Jason Day, in 2015. Since then, Walker, Thomas (2), Koepka (3), Mickelson and Morikawa have imposed the local law. You have to go back to the eighties of the last century to find a better streak of the stars and stripes. Then, between 1980 and 1989, they chained ten victories (Jack Nicklaus, Larry Nelson, Ray Floyd, Hal Sutton, Lee Trevino, Hubert Green, Bob Tway, Nelson again, Jeff Sluman and Payne Stewart).
– Tiger Woods is not lucky. Again, in the days before a Major, the report announces rain. It’s not that he comes out as a favourite, far from it, but a heavy course would especially hurt him, as he himself has acknowledged so many times, in his current circumstances. However, we stick with his last lesson of courage in the past Masters and bet on his presence this weekend in Valhalla, even though he is going to find a slightly longer course than ten years ago (in 2014 he missed the cut, by the way).
– In the list of luxury outsiders, it is advisable to stick with a name again, that of Tommy Fleetwood. He never makes noise and has not yet won in the United States, but he comes from being third in the Masters, tenth in the last Open and fifth in the last US Open, the last three Majors played. It seems that he is not there, but he is…
– Adrián Otaegui has been one of the last players to get a place for this PGA and his last Major was the one last July, the Open in Royal Liverpool. There he was in the top ten for the first two rounds, let’s not forget. In fact, he finished the first one just one shot off the lead… The San Sebastian native has always had plenty of mentality, but this week he is sure to face the event with a higher determination and ambition, much higher, than in previous majors.
– This thing about the outsiders is very good, it’s the spice of a sport in which equality is maximum. And one does not lie when objectively recognising that this same week, on the starting grid, we could have up to thirty, forty or fifty aspirants to victory. Would it really be so strange for someone like Chris Kirk, to name an excellent player who in no case appears in the first line of bets, to take the Wanamaker Trophy? Well, it wouldn’t be so strange. Having said that, what would really be strange this week, let’s not kid ourselves, would be if the winner did not come out of the trio Scheffler, Koepka and McIlroy. We are going to give them ninety percent of the options from the start, and the rest can share the remaining ten percent, which is a lot…
