– No one in 89 editions of the Masters has ever come back more than seven shots down after the first round to don the Green Jacket. Therefore, according to history and barring a legendary, jaw‑dropping event (which, of course, should not be ruled out one hundred per cent), yesterday’s scores of 67 by leaders Sam Burns and Rory McIlroy put players like Viktor Hovland (75), Bryson DeChambeau (76), Patrick Cantlay (77) or Jon Rahm (78) out of the equation. And they leave others in a desperate situation, such as Collin Morikawa (74), Matt Fitzpatrick (74), Ludvig Aberg (74), Tyrrell Hatton (74) or J. J. Spaun (74).
The situation of those latter players is nothing short of desperate in the eyes of history and statistics because only on three occasions has the Masters winner recovered seven shots on the leader after the first round. The most recent precedent, however, is very near: Rory McIlroy did it last year, the year of his Career Grand Slam, after carding a 72 on Thursday against the 65 of the leader, a certain Justin Rose, with whom he would end up contesting the title in a playoff.
– Look how curious: Tiger Woods, in 2005, also recovered seven shots after posting a 74 in the first round, against the 67 of the leader, a certain Chris Di Marco, with whom he would end up contesting the title in a playoff…
– To find the third case you have to go back to 1990. That year Nick Faldo carded a 71 in the opening round, against the 64 of Mike Donald, but would end up putting on his second Green Jacket.
– More figures to give us an idea of how Augusta National treats those who start flat. Only on five occasions in history has the eventual winner recovered six shots after the first round. They did so, for example, Gay Brewer in 1967, Craig Stadler in 1982 and Jack Nicklaus in 1986. The other two cases hit close to home, since José María Olazábal erased exactly six shots in 1994 and Sergio García did the same in 2017.
– Be that as it may, Jon Rahm‘s objective can only be to keep playing Augusta National by the book, without taking undue risks and with the healthy intention of sinking a few putts that boost his card and allow him to make the weekend. What a simplistic strategy, right? It is what it is, don’t overthink it, because you cannot and should not count on the big ‘bonuses’ (a perfect 17‑metre eagle putt, like Reed’s yesterday at 8; a ball holed out from the sand, a prodigious chip…) in advance. Keep a cool head: it is possible, even probable, that a 72 will do. So pars are still good. And even bogeys, at certain moments. The paradox sounds almost ridiculous in his precarious situation, but it’s true.
– And any card under 70 from the Spaniard would even put him in a position to finish inside the final top ten, unbelievable as it may seem, ahead of the 36 holes on Saturday and Sunday. He’s not going to win now, but there is still too much to play for to waste time licking his wounds or designing kamikaze strategies.
– Cameron Young (+1, a 73, six shots off the lead) has also put himself in a tricky situation. The New Yorker was through the 9th hole at +4 and, furthermore, contrary to the by‑the‑book rules on a Thursday, he risked it on holes 10 and 11 going for flags that only needed to be glanced at… This time it worked out, but Augusta National will be waiting for him. In any case, Young’s response, when he was really on the ropes, with a three‑under back nine, speaks loudly and clearly of his excellent development. He tees off today six shots behind the leaders, like Chema and Sergio once did…
– Scheffler has started better than well. He’s already up there and three shots off the lead. However, to be honest, something still isn’t working in the best possible way. He is probably an even stronger candidate for victory today than 36 hours ago, before the tournament began, because he’s already inside the top ten, which is where you really need to be on Thursday if you want to win. But we still haven’t seen his glorious, invincible World Number One version. Only players of Scheffler’s monstrous calibre can be that ‘brilliant’. And then they come along and shut you up.
– Sergio is not going to change now. Anyone would be convinced at this stage of the benefit of being able to see the glass half full in elite sport, no matter how bad the sensations. His 72 yesterday can be analysed in at least two ways. One: I saved the worst day with a notable result. Two: this 72 was really a miracle and things can only get worse. Sergio usually chooses the second option and it’s frightening to think how many Majors he might have won had he always chosen the first. Each person is as they are, but people can change, evolve, and Sergio has never believed it. He’s done very badly, in any case, the captain of the Fireballs could argue… And he’d be right.
