– Up to 57 different players have won the Masters in the 89 editions played so far. In recent times, in fact, it has become common for players to put on the green jacket for the first time: Dustin Johnson (2020), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Scottie Scheffler (2022), Jon Rahm (2023) and Rory McIlroy (2025). Specifically, Scheffler, Rahm and McIlroy were winners number 55, 56 and 57… Will the 58th winner be crowned this week in the tournament’s history? This year 73 players who have not yet tasted victory at Augusta National are in contention and, certainly, some of them are serious contenders. Rose, Schauffele, Fleetwood, Morikawa, Young, or even Thomas and Koepka, among many others
– It is almost obligatory to label the current World No. 1 and No. 2 as leading favourites. The names of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy carry a lot of weight. The big bookmakers, on the whole, have very few doubts about the Texan, as most tag him as the top favourite. Rory also features high, among the group of the six main favourites, but he almost always appears as the fourth big contender, behind Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, and ahead of Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele
– The truth is this first of the four big crossroads of the year does not seem to arrive at the best moment for Scottie and Rory. Regardless of what the bookmakers say, it feels as if these two titans of world golf have left the door ajar for other favourites, perhaps for a future 58th winner, if that victor is a first-time champion
– Their recent competitive appearances raise some doubts. The last result Scheffler recorded before this Masters was 22nd at THE PLAYERS. Let’s look at what the precedents of his previous four major wins tell us. When Scheffler won the Masters in 2022 he had come from a win in his prior start (WGC Dell Technologies Match Play); when he won the Masters in 2024 he had finished second at the Houston Open; when he won the PGA in 2025 he had won the Byron Nelson; and when he won the Open in 2025 he had finished eighth at the Scottish Open… There’s no comparison with the current situation
– Now let’s repeat the experiment with Rory, bearing in mind his last record was a modest 46th at THE PLAYERS. When the Northern Irishman won the US Open in 2011 he had been fifth at the Memorial; when he won the PGA in 2012 he had been fifth at the WGC Bridgestone; when he won the Open in 2014 he had been 14th at the Scottish Open; when he won the PGA in 2014 he had won the WGC Bridgestone; and when he won the Masters last year he had been fifth at the Houston Open…
– Another strange circumstance is that Rory and Scottie arrive at this Masters after three weeks without competitive golf. Rory had not done something like this before a major since 2017, so almost nine years have passed, and he has done it very few times in his career: only on four occasions in more than sixty majors played. Scheffler, for his part, had taken that long a break before a major only twice in his career, but he did so after one or several big wins (as happened before the PGA in 2024, after winning the Masters and the RBC Heritage consecutively; and before the Open in 2024, after winning the Travelers)
– The decision of Rory to be three weeks without competing was taken deliberately. Scheffler, meanwhile, had planned to play in Houston two weeks ago but withdrew due to the birth of his second child and also did not deem it appropriate to play the Valero Texas Open last week
– Ambos han sufrido algunos problemas inusuales con el material en este 2026. Rory with his irons, as he tried to switch to a slightly more ‘permissive’ model (a model that, to put it plainly, does not demand a perfect strike every time to cover the distance and stay on line), but it did not suit him at all and he had to revert to his previous ones. Scheffler was convinced of the virtues of his new driver (more distance, for example), especially after winning his first event of the year with it in the bag, but he has since backtracked and really seems confused about it. A mess that, presumably, he will have sorted out during these three weeks of competitive inactivity
– In any case, Scheffler has gone three consecutive tournaments without finishing inside the top ten (the last three he has played), something that had not happened since the summer of 2022, almost four years ago. Rory, meanwhile, has suffered the effects of a lower-back injury that forced him to withdraw at the Arnold Palmer and likely had some bearing on his modest result at THE PLAYERS. It seems obvious that this injury weighed heavily in the decision not to play these past three weeks, even though he does not like to be so inactive before a big event…
– In any case, let’s say that McIlroy and above all Scheffler are clear favourites… But slightly less so, despite the favouritism the bookmakers grant them, especially the Texan. Rahm will surely prefer to find them that way. And DeChambeau too, one of the main candidates to become the 58th winner
