– In the 87 editions of the Masters that have been played to date, only on three occasions, only three, the final winner was not within the top 25 of the classification after the first day. The first round, as we have always tried to demonstrate at TenGolf, is much more important than it may seem, but at the Augusta National it is even more so. Could it be because it has always been a course, in all its multiple versions and remodels, where going out to play with the need to force the machine is very dangerous? It could be. Let’s take the data to the cold percentage: in the Masters the final winner has come out of the top 25 of the first day in 96.55 percent of the cases. Crushing data.
– Let’s go with those three exceptional cases. The first occurred in 1991, when Ian Woosnam was in 31st place after the first round, five strokes off the lead. The second has a Spanish colour and flavour, as it occurred in 1994, when José María Olazábal was in 26th place after the first round, six strokes off the lead. And the third occurred in 2005, when Tiger Woods was in 33rd place after the first round, seven strokes off the lead.
– Precisely the biggest comeback of a winner after the first day in the history of the tournament is that of Tiger’s seven strokes in 2005, a disadvantage that Nick Faldo also faced in 1990, although the Englishman had finished the first round in twelfth place.
– With these data in front of us, the first conclusion is very clear: Jon Rahm will need a historical record to successfully defend his victory from a year ago, as he is currently eight strokes off the lead and it is more than likely that, once the day is over, he will not reach that 33rd place of Tiger in 2005 (he is currently 42nd, with 27 players yet to finish the first round). And Sergio is just on the limit: he is seven strokes off the lead, just like Tiger and Faldo in the cases mentioned, although the Castellon player could still finish the first round within the top 30 of the table. Both, Sergio and Jon, have a lot to say in 54 holes, but according to ‘the laws’ of Augusta National, their chances of victory have already been seriously reduced almost to nothing, especially in the case of the one from Barrika.
– Moreover: it is normal for one of the players who finish within the top ten of the first round to win, let’s not kid ourselves. This has happened in 67 of the 87 editions already played, or in other words, in 77.01 percent of the occasions. Even, if we go to the top 5 of the first round, the data is chilling: in 52 of the 87 editions a player who was within the top 5 of the first round won (59.77 percent). Either way, the real red line is in that top 25 of the first day and in those seven strokes behind the leader.
– Where then are the options for Hideki Matsuyama after signing a 76, four more on the day? The Japanese has said goodbye to any chance of victory and, reviewing his round, one returns to check how absolutely frustrating golf can be… Matsuyama missed up to seven putts of between just over a metre and two and a half metres away, three for birdie and four to save pars. It is not exaggerated to think that he could perfectly have solved with one stroke less five and even six of those seven situations, in which case the scenario would be completely different, of course. The Japanese did not play like silk precisely, but he only made one birdie, on the 16th, after hitting a great shot from the tee.
– One last piece of data to finish off the chilling task that will undoubtedly please Bryson DeChambeau and Scottie Scheffler: the winner of the Masters, in its 87 editions already played, came from the first or second place of the first day in 35.63 percent of the occasions (31/87). If you think about it, it’s a real burrada.
